This is Part 1 of 4 of our preview of the English Premier League season. We will proceed in reverse predicted order of finish, 5 teams per day, until all 20 teams have been covered.
20. Norwich City
Alas, someone has to finish in last place, and it might as well be Norwich City. Having achieved promotion in successive seasons (coming all the way from League One, the third division, to the Premier League), one feels that this leap may be a bridge too far for them. They conceded the most goals out of the top 6 teams in the Championship (58 in 46 games), and they almost certainly won’t be able to outscore their opponents so easily. Promoted teams always struggle to find someone who can score goals at the top level, and one doubts that last year’s leading scorer Grant Holt or new signing James Vaughan can score enough to keep them up, especially if they have a leaky defense.
19. Newcastle United
This may be a surprise to some, but any club who sells four of its best players in the span of nine months (as Newcastle likely will have done by the time you read this), will probably run into some severe trouble if they don’t find proven replacements. Joey Barton may be a troublemaker and a bunch of other words I will refrain from using here, but his criticisms of owner Mike Ashley and the Newcastle board seem spot-on. It is not a good sign that club captain Kevin Nolan decided that he would rather play in the Championship for West Ham for a season than return to St. James’ Park. New signing Demba Ba (from West Ham) could provide a major goal threat, and Hatem Ben Arfa, if he can make a full recovery from the Nigel de Jong-inflicted injury that ruined his debut season, should unsettle defenders. However, it is the defense that should concern Newcastle fans, and with all of the attacking players shipped out, Newcastle will still struggle to score more goals than they concede.
18. Queen’s Park Rangers
I expect QPR to start well, as they have a relatively easy first set of games. However, the fact that they have only brought in one proven Premier League performer (the relegated Blackpool’s DJ Campbell) suggests that they will struggle to replicate the play that led to them winning the Championship last season. Their standout player, Adel Taarabt, repeatedly failed to establish himself at Tottenham, and one wonders whether he will be able to cope with the increased pace and physicality of the Premier League. Not to mention, QPR’s owners, Indian steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal and F1 president Bernie Ecclestone, have suggested that they won’t tolerate much struggling from the team (based on the net worth of their owners, they are one of the richest clubs in the world). A midseason swoon might doom both manager Neil Warnock's job and QPR’s survival chances, as they face Manchester City, Chelsea, and Spurs in three of their last four games.
17. Blackburn Rovers
As for Blackburn, now owned by Indian chicken giant Venky’s, their squad on paper is probably better than narrowly avoiding relegation. However, their coaching and the obvious lack of football knowhow demonstrated by their new owners is going to drag them down. Steve Kean should simply not have been offered a long-term contract based on Blackburn’s performances last season, and one wonders whether Venky’s will be brave enough to sack him (and embarrass themselves) if the team are in danger of relegation. In footballing matters, David Goodwillie (signed from Scotland’s Dundee United) is unlikely to solve their goalscoring problems (last season’s top scorer, David Hoilett, had 5 league goals). Furthermore, with the sale of Phil Jones to Manchester United, if Chris Samba forces a sale to a contending team, they could have defensive problems as well. All in all, Blackburn fans should expect a long season, but there are probably three worse teams to allow them to stay up.
16. Wigan Athletic
Wigan escaped relegation on the final day last season, and unfortunately it’s hard to see how they will make substantial improvements on their 16th place finish last season, especially since their major summer transfer business has been signing a goalkeeper they already had on loan for all of last season (Ali Al-Habsi) and losing one of their best players (Charles N’Zogbia) to Aston Villa. They will also not benefit from having Manchester United’s Tom Cleverley on loan like they did last season. Roberto Martinez has Wigan playing beautiful football, but the club is simply not popular or successful enough yet for chairman Dave Whelan to afford putting even more money in to buy players with enough quality for them to seriously contend for a European place. They will also need to find goals from somewhere, especially after the loss of N’Zogbia (they had the second-worst attack in the league last season). However, they will do enough to stay up, but don’t expect them to make a run at a top-10 place.
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