This is Part 2 of 4 of our preview of the English Premier League season (see Part 1 here). We will proceed in reverse predicted order of finish, 5 teams per day, until all 20 teams have been covered.
15. Swansea City
Swansea City have a great reputation for free-flowing football, although unlike the previous team who got promoted through the playoffs, Blackpool, they seem to be capable of defending as well. As the first Welsh team to play in the Premier League, they will face a great deal of pressure, but they will be helped by the presence of last season’s leading scorer Scott Sinclair, a former Chelsea player. Although they also lost their starting goalkeeper (Dorus de Vries) to Wolves, they have strengthened their attacking lineup with former Reading and Middlesborough striker Leroy Lita, and the Championship’s leading scorer last season, Watford’s Danny Graham. If those players can get goals in the Premier League, Swansea’s free-flowing style should see them survive. They do have a tough start to the season, going to Manchester City on the first day and playing away at Chelsea and Arsenal in September. If they can avoid being totally demolished and demoralized in their early fixtures, they should be able to survive comfortably.
14. Aston Villa
The instability that reigned over Aston Villa’s offseason was not entirely of their own doing (Gerard Houllier’s health not allowing him to continue as manager, Manchester United and Liverpool buying wingers Ashley Young and Stewart Downing), but the club’s administration created their fair share (courting both Mark Hughes and Steve McClaren for the manager position, then changing its mind, and finally settling on the recently-relegated manager of their crosstown rival, Alex McLeish). What the move may signify (along with the sales of Young and Downing) is that owner Randy Lerner has decided that he cannot afford to finance the team’s push for European places any longer, and has instead decided to focus on mid-table consolidation. Unlike at Birmingham City last season, McLeish will have a top-level finisher available in Darren Bent, and wingers Marc Albrighton and new signing Charles N’Zogbia have the potential to be decent replacements for Young and Downing. However, Villa do have several issues that lead me to pick them to regress this season. Shay Given is an excellent replacement for Brad Friedel in goal, but he may have lots of work to do if Richard Dunne and James Collins don’t get their act together in central defense (both on and off the pitch). Further, much hope is being placed on central midfielder Stephen Ireland rediscovering his form from a few seasons ago. Villa’s fortunes will go as he goes.
13. Wolverhampton Wanderers
It might have been surprising to see the team that beat Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool (twice) fighting for their survival on the final day of last season. The culprit here was a porous defense (17th, only West Brom conceded more goals and survived) and an anemic attack (16th). However, if striker Kevin Doyle can stay healthy for the entire season, he should help those numbers considerably, and the conversion of former Spurs midfielder Jamie O’Hara’s mid-season loan to a permanent signing should also strengthen their attack. The addition of Roger Johnson from Birmingham City should strengthen Wolves’ defense, as well as some extra competition for Wayne Hennessey in goal in the shape of Dorus de Vries from Swansea. Wolves should continue to prove a tough out for visitors to Molineux, and will stay up comfortably provided key players stay fit.
12. Bolton Wanderers
I had Bolton tipped for a tilt at a Europa League place until their South Korean winger Lee Chung-Yong broke his leg in a preseason friendly, knocking him out for most of the season. In any case, one might argue that Bolton have regressed during the offseason, losing strikers Johan Elmander, who seemed to have finally figured out the Premier League, Daniel Sturridge (he was on a mid-season loan from Chelsea), and left-winger Matthew Taylor. Much will depend on how new signing Chris Eagles (a throwback to manager Owen Coyle’s days at Burnley) can replace him, and how Darren Pratley and Nigel Reo-Coker replace some of the depth in the squad lost in the offseason. It remains to be seen how much longer Kevin Davies can be effective as a big target man up front (despite Owen Coyle’s reputation, Bolton under him have not deviated much from the long-ball tactics seen under Sam Allardyce and Gary Megson, see this analysis from Zonal Marking for more). If Stuart Holden can keep from getting mauled by Manchester-based players this season, Bolton should stay comfortably ensconced in mid-table, but their dearth of quality strikers will hold them back.
11. Stoke City
Stoke had the best season of its recent history last year, making it all the way to the FA Cup final for the first time ever, and qualifying for the Europa League in the process. One concern for Stoke fans will be the fixture congestion brought on if they manage to qualify for the Europa League group stage, especially since they have not strengthened the squad beyond bringing in center-backs Jonathan Woodgate from Spurs and Matthew Upson from West Ham. If Woodgate can stay healthy, however, he would be a major asset to their defense; he was at one point good enough to be signed by Real Madrid. Tony Pulis will also need to figure out to improve upon their third-worst away form from last season. However, the continued solid performance of Jermaine Pennant and Matthew Etherington on the wings, as well as the aerial threat that they always pose, should allow Stoke to continue their improvement. The major danger to their season will come if they are forced to choose between their league campaign and a shot at European glory; for the club’s first participation in European competition since the 1970s, they may be willing to sacrifice a few places in league position. Now all we need is for Barcelona to come third in their Champions League group: then we may finally find out if they can do it on a wet, windy Thursday night in Stoke.
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