This is the final part of our preview of the English Premier League season (see Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 here). Stay tuned for our weekly coverage of the Premier League season!
5. Arsenal
Oh, Arsenal. It seems now that every season now follows a familiar script. Commentators claim Arsene Wenger needs to fix the mental weakness in his team, Arsene Wenger says there’s nothing wrong with the team, perhaps signs a few more stereotypical Arsenal players (small, young, quick, technically gifted versatile players), the team starts the season well, and then suffers a collapse that kills their title hopes. Last season’s collapse was epic by even Arsenal’s recent standards. Now, facing the loss of both their captain Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona, and Samir Nasri to Manchester City, they could suffer an even bigger calamity: dropping out of the Champions League all together. The signings of striker/winger Gervinho from the French champions Lille and Theo Walcott-clone Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain from Southampton will add depth and pace to the squad, but they smack of reinforcing areas that Arsenal are already strong in. The needs for an experienced, solid goalkeeper (Wojciech Szczęsny may get there soon, but he’s not there yet) and some real strength and height in defense and in midfield are still there, and it doesn’t look like they will be addressed, even if funds do become available with the sale of Fabregas and/or Nasri. Further, the loss of Gael Clichy to City means that Kieran Gibbs will now need to step up into the left-back role, and while Clichy was never known for defensive solidity, Gibbs is still relatively untested at this level. There are some positives for Arsenal, in the form of Jack Wilshere and Aaron Ramsey. Whether these two are ready to step into the regular roles of Fabregas and Nasri remains to be seen (Wilshere is probably closer than Ramsey, however), and without a strong defensive midfielder to partner with them, they risk being overrun by teams willing to take the initiative against them. Still, this team is demonstrably worse with the loss of either Fabregas or Nasri, and even if Robin van Persie can stay fit and banging in the goals all season, it is hard to see how the current squad can avoid a slip with all of the other teams in this group improving substantially.
4. Liverpool
Liverpool experienced a major revival last season with the return of Kenny Dalglish to the manager position, and the infusion of cash from the new ownership. However, it must be remembered that the excellent late-season form shown came when there was no pressure on the team; Dalglish’s challenge will be to maintain such results when Liverpool are potentially competing for the title, although the minimum expectation will be to secure Champions League football for next season. New signing Charlie Adam, if he can cope with the massive step-up from Blackpool, should restore the range of passing last seen at Anfield with Xabi Alonso, and his set-piece prowess should also provide a few extra goals. Stewart Downing, a winger signed from Aston Villa, will add much needed width to the team, and Andy Carroll’s return to full fitness will add aerial prowess and strength to the attack. Jordan Henderson does not yet appear to be the finished article, and he will mainly serve to provide depth this season.
Liverpool still need to sort out the problem position of left-back (although a deal for Newcastle’s Jose Enrique was completed today), and to add more depth at center-back, since Daniel Agger is injury-prone, and behind him and Jamie Carragher, Martin Skrtel and Sotirios Kyrgiakos fail to convince. Finding a useful reserve striker over the limited David N’Gog should also be a priority. Liverpool’s fortunes this season will depend on Dalglish figuring out the best way to utilize his available players, as Liverpool seem to have finally built some depth behind a first XI, and on Luis Suarez’s continued fitness and form. While Liverpool might be good enough to challenge for the title this season, all of the new players will require time to mesh, and I expect a fourth-place finish this season while these kinks are worked out.
3. Chelsea
Most owners would be okay with a second-place finish in the Premier League after a summer of minimal improvement, especially if the team had won the Double last season. Roman Abramovich, however, is not one of those owners. He fired Carlo Ancelotti after a midseason swoon cost them the chance to defend their Premier League title (whether this swoon was actually caused by Abramovich’s firing of assistant manager Ray Wilkins is a matter for debate). New manager Andre Villas-Boas, coming off of winning a treble (league, cup, and Europa League) for Porto, will face a great deal of pressure to win a trophy right away, not in the least because of the achievements of his famous mentor Jose Mourinho at Chelsea. With Abramovich seemingly reluctant to splash as much cash as he has in the past (the potential move for Tottenham’s Luka Modric and last January's transfer business notwithstanding), Villas-Boas will have to wring some better performances out of Chelsea’s seasoned players. Getting Fernando Torres firing again will be a major task, as well as figuring out how to revitalize an aging attack (Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Florent Malouda, and Frank Lampard are all the wrong side of 30). Villas-Boas might be able to utilize the resurgent Daniel Sturridge, fresh off of a very successful midseason loan to Bolton Wanderers. However, outside pressure (read: Abramovich) to continue playing Chelsea’s record signing Torres may interfere with his tactics, especially since Torres is ill-suited to Villas-Boas’s preferred 4-3-3 formation. The long-term injury struggles of Michael Essien are another blow to Chelsea’s title chances, although Ramires continues to improve and suggest that he can fill that holding role played by Essien (and less effectively by John Obi Mikel). Yossi Benayoun’s return from missing most of last season due to injury should also increase the creativity provided from central midfield, although the addition of Modric would be an even bigger boost to this team, as they still need a player who is capable of splitting open defenses. In the team’s current state, however, they simply have not improved enough to avoid falling behind the Manchester clubs, which may mean that Villas-Boas is not long for this job.
2. Manchester United
It is a significant statement to bet against Manchester United, especially after their major outlay in the transfer market. One feels, however, that the first XI has not improved that much (Ashley Young over Antonio Valencia, perhaps), and has maybe even regressed with the retirement of Paul Scholes and Edwin van der Sar. United remain strong in attack, with Nani coming off of a strong preseason, and Javier Hernandez set to improve even further on his amazing debut season in the Premier League. Defensively, United remain strong as ever, with Chris Smalling ready to step in if Rio Ferdinand’s injuries finally catch up to him, and Phil Jones (for now) adding depth lost with the departures of Wes Brown and John O’Shea. United’s major weaknesses this season may lie in goal, where David de Gea has looked shaky at times during the preseason, and in central midfield, where United seem to have players who can hold possession and break up attacks well enough, but none who can actually prise open a defense. Tom Cleverley may yet prove to be that player, but he is still young and untested in the crucible that is playing for United. The potential signing of Wesley Sneijder from Inter Milan has many people saying that he could be that player, but those anointing him as the final piece of the puzzle should be aware that if he is signed, he may fail to adapt to the pace of the Premier League. Of course, Wayne Rooney often drops back very deep to drive United forward, so all of this talk of the lack of a playmaker may be academic. United still have the best manager in the Premier League, and likely still have that mental strength that saw them claw back from the jaws of defeat so many times last season. However, if teams figure out how to get at them at Old Trafford, they may be in trouble, since their away form last season was absolutely shocking. United will fail to add to their Premier League trophies this season due to the improvement of the teams around them, and also it is hard to see this team doing much better against Barcelona in Europe than last year’s edition.
1. Manchester City
Manchester City’s millions have fundamentally transformed English football (many would say for the worse), and this is the season when that investment really starts to pay off (with a few caveats). This squad is arguably the best in the league, with top-level performers and decent backups for most positions, although trimming to bring the squad down to 25 senior players and to reduce their bloated wage bill may eliminate some of that depth. Edin Dzeko should finally get firing in the Premier League, and Adam Johnson will hopefully sort himself out (mentally and physically), and push for a place in this team. Even if the permanently disgruntled Carlos Tevez is finally shipped out, City will still have the players for a legitimate title challenge. Sergio Aguero, once he is fit and adjusts to this league, should terrorize defenders with his skill, and if City complete the rumored transfer of Samir Nasri, they will have a proven Premier League performer who at times last season was the best player in the league. City’s hopes for the title rest on them handling the only the club’s second run in the Champions League well, and Roberto Mancini releasing the shackles on his team against top-half opposition (they had fewer wins against top-half opposition than any other top-6 club). History has shown that the Premier League title must be won (rather than other teams losing it), and City have the squad to do it. But do they have the manager, and the mentality? That is the question that will be answered this season.
Golden Boot: Robin van Persie, Arsenal
Player of the Year: Luis Suarez, Liverpool (narrowly beating out Manchester United’s Nani because he will play more)
Young Player of the Year: Jack Wilshere, Arsenal
First manager to be sacked: Neil Warnock, QPR
Biggest Disappointment: Adel Taarabt, QPR
Biggest Surprise: Jermaine Beckford, Everton
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